By Tony LaColla, AICP

A giant wave is coming!  It will transform our society and make us rethink how we plan our communities.  This wave will change the face of housing and transportation in our communities.  But are we really prepared for what’s coming?  Are we ready for the “age wave”?   

As the baby boom generation grows older, the number of people ages 65 and older will more than double by 2030.  In fact, within 20 years over 20 percent of the American population will be over age 65.  By 2050, 40 percent of the U.S. population will be over age 50.  The year 2050 will mark the first time in human history that the percentage of senior citizens will exceed the percentage of children worldwide.  These are amazing numbers already seen in many Floridian communities and coming to Hillsborough County as well. 

It is estimated that by 2030 there will be nearly 4.5 million nondrivers over the age of 75.  How will the age wave population get to shopping, employment, medical appointments, civic and social events, and entertainment in a suburban automobile dominated society far from vital services? 

Our local and state governments must plan now to get ahead of the age wave before it crashes down on us.  We must plan and design communities that provide options to meet the needs of a large population that will not drive due to health, economic or safety reason.  There must be a two pronged approach to riding the wave; transportation and housing. 

While tomorrow’s seniors will be more affluent and active than their parents, environmental and geopolitical issues are reshaping the world.  Fossil fuels are increasingly expensive and environmental issues are affecting the climate.  The cost of owning a car and a home is far out of reach for many people now, especially seniors on fixed incomes. 

Currently, 70 percent of the baby boom generation living in major metropolitan areas lives in suburbs.  Most intend to continue living in their homes as they grow older.  They prefer to, what is commonly called, “age in place.” 

Today’s suburbs will become naturally occurring retirement communities (NORCs).  These are areas that were not planned as retirement communities but have become so as the existing residents have aged.  NORCs work well if services and amenities of a retirement community are easily accessible; however this is not commonly the case.  The design of most of our suburbs will not accommodate aging in place.

Good community design including compact, higher density, mixed-use neighborhoods are key to allowing our population to age in place over the next 20-40 years.  Not only do mixed use neighborhoods allow for those without transportation to access services, but they also promote physical activity.  Physical activity is shown to lead to better health, allowing an individual to remain independent longer. 

Good urban design includes a comprehensive network of sidewalks, bike lanes, and trails leading to and from important destinations (shopping, medical services, entertainment, events, etc.).  People are much more likely to walk and be interactive socially if they have somewhere to go and an easy way to get there.  Designing compact neighborhoods with transportation options provides safe and social environments with a mix of uses.

What can we do about existing neighborhoods?  Small fixes are a good first step, including installing and repairing sidewalks, including more parking for disabled drivers, installing curb ramps, and restriping lanes and crosswalks to make walking safer.  Hillsborough County has instituted the now nationally recognized "Senior Zone" program, which is similar to a school zone and warns drivers in areas of high senior citizen populations to slow down and be more attentive.  

For neighborhoods likely to become NORC’s, long term solutions must include long range planning.  Ultimately, existing zoning regulations in suburban neighborhoods make it difficult to create new neighborhood centers.  Redevelopment of large surface parking lots, older suburban shopping centers, and office parks into mixed use aging centers is one potential solution.   This will allow for a mix of housing types (apartments, townhomes, assisted living, etc) at various price levels and mix of retail, services, and social destinations.  Bike and sidewalk networks could be developed as well as a secondary street network that allows for neighborhood electric vehicles (GEM cars and golf carts). 

Transportation networks will need to create more options for movement.  The development of better transit, including enhanced bus service such as bus rapid transit and community circulator buses will be needed.  In addition, light rail and commuter rail will need to be developed to link local systems to other destinations in the Bay area, further supporting transit oriented development which focuses on mixed use, pedestrian friendly environments. 

Since 2003, public transportation ridership has increased by 34% in Hillsborough County, an enormous amount of growth in a short period of time.  Nationally, transit rider ship has grown by over 30% in the same time span.  Clearly, transit is now a viable and desired option for transportation.  As our population ages, growth in ridership will certainly increase proportionally.  Transportation options come as a requirement, not just a choice.  A recent report by the AARP found that 71 percent of older households say they want to live near transit.  Given reliable options for transportation, people will use them. 

With age comes wisdom, and Hillsborough County will have to make wise decisions to cope with our aging population.  Our traditional development patterns oriented toward the automobile and suburban single family homes will need to change quickly.  Planners, architects and homebuilders must look toward the future and plan accordingly.  Not only will mixed use pedestrian friendly neighborhoods with a mix of transportation options create good options for older people, but will create better communities for all people including children.  Catching the age wave now could put Hillsborough County in a better position for the coming years.