By Tony LaColla, AICP

As the lending and housing crisis grips our economy and the price of oil continues to rise, two experts agree that urban sprawl is in its last throes.  In recent writings, nationally renowned urban issues author James Howard Kunstler and Cornell University Professor of Property and Land-Use Law Eduardo Peñalver expect the current suburban development patterns to experience a major change leading to their demise. 

Historically, sprawl flourished during times of low gas prices, restrictive zoning in developed areas, permissive lending practices, inexpensive land, and the relentless desire for bigger and better homes.  Searching to fulfill the American dream of a large house in a pastoral setting, many Americans fled the city and sought refuge in the booming suburbs.  Over time, the American dream of suburban living has become clogged by traffic and plagued by social problems.  Suburbs have put an enormous strain on local government as budgets are stretched to supply municipal services in sparsely populated areas.  As a result, density closer to the urban core has been increasing since the early 1990’s.  According to Kunstler and Peñalver, increasing density is only the beginning of new trends in development.

Peñalver notes that the housing boom is now defunct and construction in the outer suburbs has ground to a halt.  2007 saw the housing market enter a major decline as the buying frenzy hit a wall.  Credit is tight and housing demand is drying up.  Over-valued subdivisions with a multitude of “for sale” signs are far too common.  Based on current data, Kunstler says, “The housing market is in a death spiral. Eventually, the median price of a house will have to fall back to the median income…perhaps 50%.”    Despite the dismal conditions, the downturn will pass and the housing market will recover and reinvent itself.

According to Kunstler, 2008 will be the year the issue of oil steps to the forefront of American politics, pushing aside climate change as the most immediate threat affecting us.  As oil fluctuates between $80 and $140 a barrel in 2008 and America faces spot shortages, the structure of our car dependent society will be questioned.  As gas prices increase (chart to right), long commutes could price homeowners out of their homes.  While there may not be a sudden rush back to urban centers, people will relocate to neighborhoods closer to jobs and services.  They will also demand access to good transit.

Citizens and officials will have to imagine new ways of living and governing.  Peñalver says, “We may discover that it’s not so bad living closer to work, in transit and pedestrian friendly communities, diverse neighborhoods where we can run into friends and neighbors as we walk to the store, school or office.  We may even find that we don’t miss our cars and commutes, and the culture they created, nearly as much as we feared we would.”

A transition is coming.  Current development patterns are not environmentally or economically sustainable.  In our changing economy, a wider variety of housing and transportation options will become a necessity.  Local governments will need to be creative and innovative to deal with the economic and environmental factors at our doorstep.  Reality is knocking on our door.  How will we respond?